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Author Topic: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems  (Read 945 times)

Offline NoMoreFaith

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CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« on: September 03, 2019, 05:23:45 pm »
PART ONE - Final 16

For anyone taking part in the Pick'ems for the CSGO Major, I'd like to offer my own thoughts on what  is probably the most difficult pick'em we've ever seen at a Major.  I can't guarantee your diamond coin - but hope the rationale makes sense and I believe the highest % winrate for successful picks.

So, lets talk about the last 16 - from here our pickems are the most important, because get these wrong and your quarter final semi final and final picks are at risk to a team you didn't pick in the final 16.

Renegades V ENCE
Renegades continue to surprise but its not unusual for them to make the final 16 - innovative strats, and when the team turns up, especially Gratisfaction, this is genuinely a team that can pull upsets. 
However, while their push to the final 16 is fantastic and surprising - you also have to consider they did so, only by beating teams that didn't qualify.  To get here they beat Dreameaters, FaZe and G2 - Good teams especially FaZe and G2, but those teams didn't turn up at all.  Renegades, have NOT beaten a team on form.  ENCE aren't just on form, they are crushing with a 3-0 route to the final 16 - including beating Vitality 2-0 and Avangar (who are the second surprise qualifier), the only easy match they probably had was MiBR who are in a mess.
No.  I want them to win - But Renegades haven't faced a STRONG team yet - and they will need to not only fire on all cylinders but surprise a well prepared ENCE team who have had days to prepare.  Its not going to happen.  This unfortunately is the easiest Pick.  ENCE, probably 2-0 in the BO3.

Vitality V Avangar

Avangar have really done well this tournament, CIS region teams are so good at pulling out shock wins.  Taking down LIQUID in their BO1.  My point here thou - is in a BO3, Liquid probably don't lose.  G2 were failures in this tournament so that win was a surprise, but retrospectively not THAT shocking.  They also beat Renegades.  Vitality are however, technically the world No.2 team.  Have been for the last 3 months - their stumble in this tournament is mostly due to the fact they resemble 2018 Na'Vi with S1mple, in that if ZyWoo isn't on top form, they are just a GOOD team.  With Zywoo firing on all cylinders - its tough for anyone.   Well done to Avangar - but Vitality have got this - on the simple basis, that even with ZyWoo on average form - the rest of the team are hitting better HLTV ratings than Avangar.  Quarter final - ENCE v Vitality - thats the tough one in this side of the bracket but more on that later.

Na'Vi vs NRG

Oh boy, s**t started to get real here.  This is a real coin flip, but like Vitality - if the coin lands S1mple side up - NRG will have a tough match.  However, NRG - in my estimation, have been the most consistent and strongest team in the qualifiers.  They went 3-0 like ENCE.  BUT; They beat Renegades who qualified.  They beat LIQUID, They beat ASTRALIS 2-0.
Na'Vi are very inconsistent and weaknesses have been exposed by more average teams than NRG.  The more I considered this one, the more I realised my fondness for Na'Vi (team shirt on my back) colours my perception.  NRG never looked troubled.  They took down the strongest teams to go 3-0.  Na'Vi have basic problems to fix, still rely on S1mple turning up to make this tough.  But NRG have the chance to make this the breakout tournament for themselves.  Its NRG to win this, probably 2-1 as Na'Vi are no joke to beat, and S1mple is likely to be hungry to prove he hasn't lost it.

Astralis v Liquid

The GRAND FINA... erm what .. okay.  God damn.  This should have been the final, Liquid looking shaky but still championship material - Astralis, a shadow of their former self, but a shadow that will overwhelm you if you don't focus on them.
Flip a coin.  The only thing that matters here is can Liquid refind their form after the player break.  This is pretty much 51-49 in my head - and I came down Liquid.  They have proven themselves the strongest team of all over a considerable amount of time now, and even though they had shaky qualification - they always found a way to win a vital round, to keep heads above water.  This tenacity is not something I saw in Astralis, who are still relying on their prepared executes rather than the innovations they were known for, this is disruptable and I think Liquid will expose the cracks and push through on sheer willpower in this one.  Liquid are exceptional at pulling out the stops when they need to, and if you think their qualification form will continue, you haven't been watching this team play in the last 12 months.  Its Liquid.



Offline misterpixie

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Re: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2019, 06:56:38 pm »
nice breakdown na'vi fanboi. cant fault ur logic/arguments here.

Offline NoMoreFaith

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Re: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2019, 08:03:08 pm »
PART TWO - THE IMPOSSIBLE CHOICES OF THE BERLIN MAJOR

No mucking about, let's get into it;

Semi-Final Time

ENCE vs Vitality

This is where opinion starts to get very very divided.  ENCE are on an absolute tear at the moment, but Vitality once Avangar are out of the way, should be feeling confident about good progress in the tournament without blowing anyones mind.  At this point, I really expect ZyWoo to be hitting his stride.
ENCE however, have issues with aleksib being benched after the signing of SuNny.  ENCE defied expectations with the drama - and instead made it a driving force to making the second major final in a row. 
So why not pick Vitality to win this? 0-2.  That's what.  ENCE, on the way here already beat them easily 2-0.  In this situation I often favour the losing team because they can directly fix the mistakes they made, whereas the winning team can't really expect the same mistakes, and only fix smaller issues.  However, ENCE have a big following in Germany.  The crowd in the stadium is going to be all about ENCE.  EZ4ENCE Clan will be in full force - I think the rollercoaster ENCE are on just now will carry them through here.  If you pick Vitality - I wouldn't stop you - for me I think the confidence of the roll they are on, the crowd behind them, 3 of the top 6 players in the tournament are on ENCE, hard to bet against them at this point.

NRG vs Liquid
NRG have shown the strongest showing so far, Cerq's form for NRG has been out of this goddamn world.  They have no fear of big teams, and scrim so often against Liquid that they really don't have any problem with Liquid.
On the other hand, Liquid - they will get stronger and stronger in this tournament - they struggled through, but I think this will make them stronger.  NRG have peaked early, Liquid will build momentum.  While I feel NRG will dispatch Na'Vi in a very close series (give Na'Vi's high HLTV ratings on average despite results), Liquid will have way more tricks to pull out of the bag.  I definitely think NRG can beat Liquid in a best of 3, after beating them already in a best of one; but I wonder how long they can go on for at that level; Liquid haven't peaked yet, NRG probably have.  In the closest match of the entire tournament, I think Liquid's tenacity might just be the deciding factor.  This for me will be the game of the tournament, more so than Liquid/Astralis or ENCE/Vitality.

The GRAND FINAL
This is basically impossible, I believe it will be Liquid vs ENCE.  So much is unknown about the form shown, or whether either of these teams will make it.  I'm not going to lie, theres too many unknown variables at this stage of the tournament to call it, not without seeing the final 16, quarter finals, or semi finals.  The crowd will favour ENCE - and my heart tells me, this is ENCE's tournament.  However, part of that is the romantic view of best case scenario.  Liquid have the pedigree, the history, and the drive to make this 2 in a row.  Aleksib will have already proven to other orgs - and sneakily - I believe he will already have an offer from a new team by this point of the tournament - and his motivation will be there, but the safety net of a new team will be on his mind.
For a champion we need a team that has battled through adversity, taken on the strongest in the world and won, and proven that endurance, resilience, skill and preparation will win the day.  That team is Liquid.  Its a boring choice to win the major, but when all the chips are down, and you want an experienced arena team to stand tall - NRG are nearly there - but lack the experience at this level, ENCE are a meme, a strong one, but champions will be champions.  Pick Liquid.


Offline MajorTrauma

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Re: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2019, 08:31:15 pm »
Hmmmmm

ENCE and Vitality you say?
« Last Edit: September 05, 2019, 08:33:16 pm by MajorTrauma »

Offline NoMoreFaith

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Re: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2019, 12:03:24 pm »
Haha, I know right, well, I did say it was the highest % winrate, not a guarantee.  Renegades and Avangar vastly overperformed and ENCE/Vitality underperformed - Good for them, Pick'ems still good if NRG and Liquid win thou!

Offline MajorTrauma

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Re: CSGO Berlin Major - My thoughts on the Champions Pick'ems
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2019, 08:16:26 pm »
1 out of 4 is Ok I guess